Arsene Wenger - Time to change policy or time to change job?

Played 5, won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3. Scored 6 and conceded 14. Sitting 17^th in the table. Yes, we are only in September but these stats make quite awful reading for Arsenal followers.

Arsene Wenger arrived at Highbury in 1996 as rather an unknown. He came from Nagoya Grampus Eight looking much like ‘The Demon Headmaster’.  Those who do not remember the school principle that terrorised young audiences in the late 90’s can inspect the image below. In fact, ‘The Demon Headmaster’ first hit our screens 1996 as well. Coincidence? I think not.

All jokes aside, not many would have predicted the successes that Wenger would bring to North London. The Gunners have won the Premier League thrice since 1996 and the first two of these successes included an FA Cup double. Arsene’s finest moment though came in 2004 when his ‘Invincibles’ went the entire season without losing a league match. Something Sir Alex amongst others cannot match.

In terms of trophies won Arsene Wenger is Arsenal’s most successful manager. So why now are some pundits and fans asking (perhaps demanding) for the Frenchman to move on? The reasons I am afraid are plentiful.

Since the Gunners amazing triumph in 2004 things have somewhat gone downhill. Apart from an FA Cup the following year Arsenal have won exactly ZERO trophies. Is this really the product of a team that went an entire league season unbeaten? Yes they have come close, there has been a Champions League final as well as two League Cup finals. Arsenal fans though have become used to getting more than just “close” to trophies.

For the years since their last trophy Mr. Wenger has invested heavily in youngsters that have come and gone. Seasons have come and gone as well without adding to the trophy cabinet. By having a young team the manager and fans alike have been able to comfort themselves in their failure. The philosophy that it will all come good “next season”. It’s been six barren years now and it hasn’t come good on the trophy front. Patience has well and truly wore thin.

This blog has attacked Mr. Wenger’s transfer policy on numerous occasions. Whether it is his or the board’s fear of spending money that dictates this policy I do not know. Whoever it is to blame though may regret their decisions come the end of the season.

Arsenal lost arguably their best two players in Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri this summer. They did rather well out of it as well financially, garnering over £50 million from the pair. Why though did they leave it so late in the transfer window to let them go? Especially as it would appear they didn’t exactly have concrete replacements lined up. Mikel Arteta and Yossi Benayoun were brought in on deadline day and I am afraid they don’t quite fill the shoes of the players that have departed from the Emirates. Why not give yourself the whole summer to find replacements for players that you know are going to leave?

Why also, do they refuse to spend big amounts of money? A want for bringing through youth talent rather than spending tens of millions of pounds is an admirable stance by Wenger. Unfortunately it is also an outdated one. After Andrei Arshavin, Arsenal’s 2^nd most expensive signing is....(drum roll) Sylvain Wiltord. Wasn’t worth the drum roll was it? The Frenchman signed for £13 million over 11 years ago.  Unfortunately the world of football that we now live in means that money has to be spent to be successful. Manchester United have long had a formula of spending whilst blooding in young starlets and this has obviously been successful. After 6 years without a trophy perhaps Alan Hansen was right after all, just not about the right manager  -“you’ll never win anything with kids.”

Opposition teams do not fear Arsenal anymore. Since Patrick Vieira left in 2005 Arsenal have had no player of any steel. No midfield general to command his troops. Arsenal have always played fantastic football but at the same time it has always been felt that they can be physically dominated. Or at least it has been felt that since 2005. It is somewhat baffling to see how much good a tough midfielder could do for Arsenal and yet they let the likes of Scott Parker go to White Hart Lane for £5 million. Mr. Wenger needs to accept the best teams have both silk and steel at their disposal.

The disarray in which Arsenal stood after such a chaotic transfer window has obviously affected their start to the season. The Gunners have had a high turnover of first team players with much of it going on once the season had started. Players will obviously settle in and performances will improve. Will it be enough to make the top 4? I am not so sure. I think too many times this season their defence will be opened up. Tottenham and Liverpool are both going for that 4^th spot and neither have the distraction of the Champions League.

Arsenal chief executive Ivan Gazidis has come out today and reassured all concerned that Mr. Wenger will not be sacked.  “He didn't suddenly become a bad manager” says Gazidis. Of course not. Perhaps a bit stuck in his ways though, a tad misguided? I think so.

Is it not more of a worry that Wenger will leave on his own accord? If it comes to December/ January time and Arsenal are sitting in 8^th having criticism thrown from all quarters? The Gunners have never finished outside the top 4 in the 15 years since Wenger joined. If they are failing to achieve that this season is Wenger going to go down with his ship? Perhaps his pride is too strong.

Wenger's team building policies in recent years have been flawed that is a fact. He has 3 options available really: stick, twist or leave the table. I am not sure whether he knows which one to take right now. 

In reality there can be no denying Arsene Wenger’s previous triumphs. This season however I think is his biggest test. He needs to secure his defence and he needs to secure his team’s self-belief. A big 8 months is ahead for the Frenchman and things needs to improve drastically for him and his team. I think he will definitely need to strengthen further in the transfer window in January as well. Whether or not he does this though will be up to him. The time to spend money is now and if he does not do not be surprised to see Arsenal outside the top 4 come next May.

And who knows, Mr. Wenger may not be there come next May either.

Brits Abroad: The Champions League Beckons

Andy Townsend and Gareth Southgate have dusted off their average-looking suits and punditry shoes. The summer is over and the world’s biggest club competition is back, the Uefa Champions League.  It won’t be long until we are serenaded with Tony Britten’s adaptation of George Frideric Handel’s ‘Zadok the Priest’ performed by the London Royal Philharmonic Orchestra. Confused? As was I until a quick Wikipedia check 5 minutes ago. I am of course referring to the Champions League anthem played at the start of all Champs League matches. Check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgomX3qD-iA if you are still confuzzled.

The 1990’s were generally a barren period for English clubs in the European Cup / Champions League. After the Heysel Stadium disaster of 1985 where 39 fans were killed, English clubs were banned from European club football for 5 years. Whether this was fair or not, English clubs definitely suffered because of the ban. They could no longer attract the better players in Europe and many of their own went abroad for European competition, Mark Hughes and Gary Lineker for example. After a long spell of not being able to compete against Europe’s elite teams initially struggled after being introduced back to the European Cup. In fact in the first 14 years after the ban was lifted an English team reached the Champions League final ONCE, Man United’s unbelievable win in 1999.

Even United’s win was somewhat of a false dawn. It was then a further 6 years until we saw a team from Blighty in the final again, Liverpool with again another outrageous victory in 2005. Since then English teams have flourished with one of our clubs making the final every year apart from 2010. That is a fantastic record and one I hope we can continue. After an interesting transfer window I look ahead to what our 4 teams can do this year. Here goes, in alphabetical order:

Arsenal:

After a quite traumatic transfer window, Arsenal currently sit 11^th with 4 points from 4 games and a goal difference of -7. No, -7 is not a typing error. More than ever in his 15 year reign, Arsene Wenger is being questioned and this is a huge season for the Frenchman and his team. Arsenal lost Fabregas and Nasri in the transfer window and they needed to make several signings even before these two massive departures. After a deadline day spree can Arsenal be challenging for the big trophy at the end of the season?

Well Per Mertersacker is fairly proven and even if he performs poorly he is still big enough to at least scare some of Europe’s top strikers. The jury is out on left-back Andre Santos but he does have 22 Brazil caps to his name so does come with some pedigree. His influence however (good or bad) is unlikely to be season defining. Mikel Arteta? Cesc’s replacement? A decent player, no doubt about it. But minimal Champs League experience and no senior international caps? Hardly going make the Arsenal fans forget about Fabregas in a hurry. Nor is Yossi Benayoun I am afraid. Again he is certainly a player of quality but the ease in which Liverpool and then Chelsea let him move onto rival teams surely shows he’s not the most dangerous of players. Unfortunately BenTeta does not match up to NasRegas.

Arsene Wenger has a proven record of reaching the knockout stages of the Champions League. Since 2003/04 when the tournament was expanded to have a last 16 phase, Arsenal have featured every year since in the latter stages. They have also been unfortunate to have come up against Barcelona for the last 2 years. With a not-so-easy but not-so-tough group of Marseille, Olympiakos and Borussia Dortmund I would expect Arsenal to once again be reaching the last 16 this season. However I wouldn’t look too much beyond that. If the draw doesn’t go right for them then I would think Arsenal will struggle. They are also in real danger of not finishing in the top 4 in the Premier League this year so the Champions League could be an unwanted distraction at times. I think the league will have to be their main focus this season, if they miss out on qualifiying for Europe’s major tournament then we could see a few more players and perhaps a manager saying “Au Revoir” next summer.

Chelsea:

‘Chelski’ are a team in transition. They have a young, dynamic manager but unfortunately quite an ageing squad. Drogba, Lampard, Terry, Malouda, Anelka and A. Cole are all in their 30’s now. It will be a strain for these players to be at the top of their game in both the league and in Europe every week. ‘AVB’ has brought in younger players but you cannot transform a squad overnight. I think the signing of Juan Mata is very shrewd though, he’s a talented player and will add a creative spark that Chelsea have lacked in recent years.

Chelsea are a powerful team and I think they have rather an average group to face, compiled of Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen and Genk. Valencia are the main danger and they have been forced in recent years to sell off their main talents, Villa, Silva, Mata etc. Despite having ex-Blue Michael Ballack to bring back to the Bridge, Leverkusen also pose a modest threat. So I would expect Chelsea to top this group with relative ease. Like Arsenal though, I am not sure how they will cope against a European giant in the knockout stages.

Chelsea were found lacking last season against Man United in the quarters last year. I don’t think they have made the kind of signings to suggest this wouldn’t happen again. They could also do with locating the form of the striker formally known as Fernando Torres, who may have labelled his team mates old and slow recently (investigation pending). The Champs League is an obsession for Mr. Abramovich and in AVB he may have a manager who could deliver it  - but not this season. Roman will have to be patient and allow AVB to build his team. One thing I think we may have learned from Roman though is that patience is not one of his finer qualities.

Manchester City:

Well there is always a ‘group of death’ and this year Manchester City are supposedly in it. They are however one of the main reasons it is the group of death along with Bayern Munich. City always spend big in the summer but this year they have spent very well. Samir Nasri has undoubted quality but Sergio Aguero has been worryingly good since his arrival. With a resurgent Dzeko and the likes of Silva, Tevez and Yaya Toure in support, City are an obvious threat for any team in Europe.

This is a big step-up from the Europa League however. City have a large, talented squad but unlike the Champs League’s little brother, they will not be able to get away with fielding a second-string in Europe anymore. In fact, it didn’t work for them last year when they crashed out against Dynamo Kiev in the Europa League’s last 16. They do have players with European experience. However as a team they have never been challenging for the league and the European Cup at the same time. They are a title threat now and will be expected by their fans to push for both trophies, playing their biggest stars in both competitions.

Manchester City are always surprising and I definitely expect them to qualify if not win their group. They may reach the last 8, perhaps the last 4 but the final is a stretch too far, at least for the moment. Roberto Mancini has done well at Eastlands and let’s not forget this is a man who transformed Inter into what is now Italy’s dominant team. He won 3 Scudettos in a row but was sacked, why you all ask? He did naff all in the Champions League. So this is as big a test for Mancini as it is for his players. Due to challenging on both domestic and European fronts I don’t think City will be in the final Champions League shake-up, it’s a little too soon. As I say though, they are always surprising and I am sure they will be entertaining whatever happens.

Manchester United:

United did their transfer business earlier in the summer and will of course be looking to make it 4 finals in 5 seasons next May. The signings of Ashley Young and Phil Jones have been somewhat inspired so far, David De Gea less so. He is still just 20 years old though so he will be afforded time. Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley have both impressed since their return from loan and all in all United have looked somewhat formidable so far. 

The Red Devils have immense Champions League pedigree and a hardly fear-inspiring group of Benfica, Basel and er...Otelul Galati? Romania’s finest apparently. So it would be somewhat ludicrous for them not to reach the latter stages. United have played more and won more games than any other team in the Champions League so do not be surprised to see them in the last 4 at least. This though, or perhaps earlier, is where they may enter trouble.

United’s season was tainted last year by the absolute demolition they suffered from Barcelona. Since then Barca have welcomed home Cesc Fabregas into midfield. Who did United replace Paul Scholes with? Well apart from Cleverley’s return, no one. Despite Fergie apparently learning from his team’s dismantling and the fluid manner with which they have so far played, the gap between United and Barca remains. United’s early form suggests it is going to have be a colossal effort from their rivals to stop Nemanja Vidic lifting the league trophy in 2012. And I fully expect them to be in contention for this Champions League, only though if Barcelona can be disposed of by someone else. The lack of midfield signings and the psychological hold that Barca have on United implies that United will not be the ones to knock Guardiola’s men out this season. Barca were unbelievable and at times unplayable last year. If anyone else is to win the Champions League this time then you would have to think that they will have to slay the Catalan dragon along the way.

These are my humble forecasts for the impending Uefa Champions League 2011/12. As we have learnt too often in football, predictions can stand for nothing once the first whistle is blown. Or in this case when Tony Britten’s adaptation of George Frideric Handel’s ‘Zadok the Priest’ performed by the London Royal Philharmonic Orchestra is played.

The Transfer Deadline Approaches: Part 1

What do I think of the transfer window? Well, I bloody love it. Well I love deadline day. It’s a rare phenomenon in football. It’s like a tornado is about to hit Premier League Town and all the clubs rush to the supermarket to gather any supplies they can before it hits. Some spend wisely and some take a gamble. Some spend ridiculous amounts (Andy Carroll - £35 fu**ing million?!) and others make a signing for the sake of it. Marcus Bent has made a career out of clubs making signings for the sake of it. Transfers become enjoyable for the neutral during this period of chaos.

To be honest one of the main reasons I look forward to deadline day is the end of ‘transfer speculation’.  In the days before a transfer window speculation was obviously  still rife but it could run at a steady speed all season, no need for the concentrated levels we now have in August and January. According to their website if Man United had bought every player they’d been linked with they’d of spent over a billion this summer. Don’t be silly. That kind of money is reserved to pay for Sir Alex’s various F.A. fines throughout the year.  

Finally, we can only have a true prediction of how each team will fare once the transfer window closes and as football fans we bloody love to predict. So here I look at what I feel some of the ‘top 6’ need to do in the next 122 hours to hit their respective heights this season. 

Arsenal: ‘Circus Master Wenger’ – “Roll up, roll up for the Arsenal circus. You’ll keep most of your money but won’t have that enjoyable a time.” The next five days are extremely important for Arsenal’s season and I think for Arsene Wenger’s career. They have lost Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and they will obviously need to do something to replace this talented centre-midfield shaped hole. But before they left, Arsenal already needed a goalkeeper, a centre-back and a striker that scores goals. On top of this they have a manager who seems to wince at spending money. Their recent “insulting” bid of £6 million for Gary Cahill only proves Arsene’s issues further. If they want to claim a top 4 spot this season they need to spend some real money and do it rather quickly. A bit of steel wouldn’t go a miss either, something that hasn’t been seen since Vieira’s departure 6 years ago. Arsene’s ‘next season policy’ will not wash with fans anymore. Scott Parker’s number anyone?

Chelsea:  The Blues: had been fairly under the radar for most  of the summer but I think the signing of Juan Mata could be a masterstroke. For years Chelsea have missed the creativity of a Zola-esque player. Mata, in the David Silva mould, could slot into this role. Chelsea have power in abundance but they now have an element of finesse to compliment that. They also have strikers in abundance and Andre Villas-Boas (AVB?) will have a tough task keeping them all happy. Overall Chelsea have a strong squad but it is an ageing one. AVB has begun to bring in youngsters but a squad transition won’t happen overnight. Roman’s chequebook is probably being put back in his top pocket. At least until January.

Liverpool: With American owners that can be relied on, King Kenny has spent plenty of Dollar in the last two transfer windows. Time will tell if the Scotsman can gel his new players together, the fact that he purchased many of them from this country (unheard of?!) will help. 

But is there further strengthening to do? Well yes I think there is. Suarez and Carroll are talented players but behind that? David N’gog is not (or at least should not) be a striker at a club who expects to be in the top 4. Liverpool are rumoured to be talking to Craig Bellamy and this is exactly the kind of player they need. He will provide the experienced cover they need. Elsewhere? Despite young Uruguayan Sebastian Coates supposedly being on his way to Anfield, Liverpool still lack in the centre-back position. Agger and potential Bond henchman Skrtel are not talented enough or consistent enough. Whilst Coates has a lot of promise, the Premier League is not forgiving for 20 year old South Americans. Having said that I think the rest of the squad is nicely primed for a Champs League push. Although if his time at Blackburn is anything to go by, King Kenny will retire to Director of Football before he is willing to take Europe’s elite on.

That’s all for now. More transfer window teachings to follow on the ‘top 6’ clubs and the players looking for a move in the next week.